A hike would establish Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility, leading some, like Citadel Securities and PGIM, to assign a higher chance of an increase this week.

Seasonal gains fueled the highest dollar volume of loans acquired since the third quarter of 2022, suggesting lenders are getting business from homebuyers.

The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in the overnight session, the pause ended as multiple attacks were reported on both sides. Oil rose predictably and bond yields did the same. One "pause" t